Subject: Indian Chief
Date: Mon, May 21 2001 00:00:02 EDT

Rosanne Rose sends us this tale of the perils of prediction...

So, you may have heard this one but there was an Indian chief whose custom it was to prepare his tribe for the upcoming seasons and with the latest technologies at his disposal he decided to call the local national weather service to get an idea of what the upcoming winter was going to be like to inform the tribe.

The chief calls the weather service and ask "What is the winter looking like?"

Answer from weather service, "We think it might be a bit worse than last year, although we are not positive."

So, with such a tentative answer the chief calls the tribe together and tells them to make sure to gather a little extra wood and make sure they have enough blankets before winter starts.

As the summer progresses the chief once again calls the weather service and asks, "Can you tell me about the winter forecast? I really want to know how bad a winter it might be!"

The weather service person responds with, "We are beginning to think that perhaps this winter will be MUCH worse than last year "

The chief gathers the tribe again and tells them that the winter is going to be worse than it has been in years and they will have to really prepare. Finally, the end of the summer comes and as Fall is approaching the chief decides to call the weather service again just to see if there is any change in the forecast.

The weather service this time says, "We are sorry to report that indications are strong that this might be the worst winter in decades. We are suggesting that folks prepare for the worst"

The chief was very concerned at this point and knew that he had to once again stress to the tribe that they had to be prepared. So, once again he told the tribe to get more blankets and more firewood.

At this point, the nearby woods in the Indian reservation were beginning to run low of fallen trees and the Indians had to cut some down now. Finally, the chief felt like the tribe had done all it could and was very proud of their efforts in preparing for a very, very severe winter.

The chief once more as Fall began called the weather service and asked one last time. "I have called before and asked but I had to ask one more time. How bad is the winter going to be?"

The weather service in a near panic now responded, "Oh sir, we don't know how folks will make it. This winter is perhaps going to be the worst winter of the century... the Indians have gathered more firewood than we have ever seen before."

Morale of the story: Know your sources.